The epidemiology of oral cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Italy: Incidence, survival, prevalence.

Despite novel treatment approaches, oral cancer survival has not improved significantly and the disease often presents a disabling path for patients. The aim of this work was to describe the epidemiological data of oral cancers in a province of northern Italy. Incident cases in the period 1996-2020 and EU population standardized rates were reported for Oral Cavity cancer (OC) and OroPharyngeal cancer (OP). Annual percent changes (APC) were estimated with joint point analysis. The 5-year survival was calculated in three different periods: 1996-2000, 2001-2010 and 2011-2015. From 1996 to 2020, 771 cases of oral cancers (442 OC and 329 OP) were recorded with the age-standardized incidence rate 7.28 (10.74 in males and 3.97 in females): 3.82 for OC and 3.47 for OP. In males there is a significant increase in the incidence of OP up to 2017 (APC 11; 95% CI, 4.9-17.5), which then decreases; in females the rates are constant. In 2020 (the era of Covid-19), we did not see a decline in incidence compared to 2019. The 5-year survival (for cases diagnosed in 2011-2015) was 55.6%, 56.5% and 56% for OC, OP and OC + OP, respectively; it was somewhat higher in females and was undergoing some changes over the course of years. The number of prevalent cases as of 1 January 2021 is 314 (175 OC, 139 OP). The study showed a decline in cancers in men, particularly for OP; survival shows improvement in the long-term examined; Covid-19 had no negative impact on 2020 diagnoses.

High temperature, COVID-19, and mortality excess in the 2022 summer: a cohort study on data from Italian surveillances.

We aimed to assess whether the effect of high temperature on mortality differed in COVID-19 survivors and naive. We used data from the summer mortality and COVID-19 surveillances. We found 3.8 % excess risk in 2022 summer, compared to 2015-2019, while 20 % in the last fortnight of July, the period with the highest temperature. The increase in mortality rates during the second fortnight of July was higher among naïve compared to COVID-19 survivors. The time series analysis confirmed the association between temperatures and mortality in naïve people, showing an 8 % excess (95%CI 2 to 13) for a one-degree increase of Thom Discomfort Index while in COVID-19 survivors the effect was almost null with -1 % (95%CI -9 to 9). Our results suggest that the high fatality rate of COVID-19 in fragile people has decreased the proportion of susceptible people who can be affected by the extremely high temperature.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time from prior infection: a cohort study, Reggio Emilia province, Italy, February 2020 to February 2022.

BackgroundUnderstanding the epidemiology of reinfections is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 control over a long period.AimTo evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time after first infection.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study including all residents in the Reggio Emilia province on 31 December 2019, followed up until 28 February 2022 for SARS-CoV-2 first infection and reinfection after 90 days. Cox models were used to compare risk of first infection vs reinfection, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine doses and comorbidities.ResultsThe cohort included 538,516 residents, 121,154 with first SARS-CoV-2 infections and 3,739 reinfections, most in the Omicron BA.1 period. In the pre-Omicron period, three doses of vaccine reduced risk of reinfection by 89% (95% CI: 87-90), prior infection reduced risk by 90% (95% CI: 88-91), while two doses and infection reduced risk by 98% (95% CI: 96-99). In the Omicron BA.1 period, protection estimates were 53% (95% CI: 52-55), 9% (95% CI: 4-14) and 76% (95% CI: 74-77). Before Omicron, protection from reinfection remained above 80% for up to 15 months; with Omicron BA.1, protection decreased from 71% (95% CI: 65-76) at 5 months to 21% (95% CI: 10-30) at 22 months from the first infection. Omicron BA.1 reinfections showed 48% (95% CI: 10-57) lower risk of severe disease than first infections.ConclusionsNatural immunity acquired with previous variants showed low protection against Omicron BA.1. Combined vaccination and natural immunity seems to be more protective against reinfection than either alone. Vaccination of people with prior infection reduced the risk of severe disease.

Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data.

Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95% CrI 4.0-5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27-8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95% CrI 5.54-8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95% CrI 2.29-2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95% CrI 2.62-2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48-51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.

Prompt Resumption of Screening Programme Reduced the Impact of COVID-19 on New Breast Cancer Diagnoses in Northern Italy.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the real impact of COVID-19 during the entire 2020 period, compared with 2019. The data comes from a Cancer Registry in Northern Italy and we compared clinical and treatment characteristics of breast cancer by age, stage, treatment, and status screening. In 2020 there was no decrease in invasive tumours nor in in situ (513 vs. 493 and 76 vs. 73, respectively), while there was a significant decrease in surgery and increase in neoadjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.016). In the screening range (aged 45-74), no change in stage and grading was observed. In the four periods examined there was an increase in new diagnoses during pre-lockdown, a decrease in tumours especially at age 75+ [IRR 0.45; 95%CI 0.25-0.79] during lockdown, a recovery of new diagnoses in women 45+ in the low incidence period while in the last period there was a significant increase only for ages 45-74 [IRR 1.48; 95% CI 1.11-1.98]. Screening activities were suspended from March to May, but over the summer and autumn the backlog was addressed. This suggests that a prompt resumption of programmed screening may have limited the impact of the pandemic on the delay of breast cancer diagnoses.

The epidemiology of oral cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Italy: Incidence, survival, prevalence

Despite novel treatment approaches, oral cancer survival has not improved significantly and the disease often presents a disabling path for patients. The aim of this work was to describe the epidemiological data of oral cancers in a province of northern Italy. Incident cases in the period 1996–2020 and EU population standardized rates were reported for Oral Cavity cancer (OC) and OroPharyngeal cancer (OP). Annual percent changes (APC) were estimated with joint point analysis. The 5-year survival was calculated in three different periods: 1996–2000, 2001–2010 and 2011–2015. From 1996 to 2020, 771 cases of oral cancers (442 OC and 329 OP) were recorded with the age-standardized incidence rate 7.28 (10.74 in males and 3.97 in females): 3.82 for OC and 3.47 for OP. In males there is a significant increase in the incidence of OP up to 2017 (APC 11;95% CI, 4.9–17.5), which then decreases;in females the rates are constant. In 2020 (the era of Covid-19), we did not see a decline in incidence compared to 2019. The 5-year survival (for cases diagnosed in 2011–2015) was 55.6%, 56.5% and 56% for OC, OP and OC + OP, respectively;it was somewhat higher in females and was undergoing some changes over the course of years. The number of prevalent cases as of 1 January 2021 is 314 (175 OC, 139 OP). The study showed a decline in cancers in men, particularly for OP;survival shows improvement in the long-term examined;Covid-19 had no negative impact on 2020 diagnoses.

A deep learning approach for Spatio-Temporal forecasting of new cases and new hospital admissions of COVID-19 spread in Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND: Since February 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has rapidly spread throughout Italy. Some studies showed an association of environmental factors, such as PM10, PM2.5, NO2, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and mobility with the spread of the epidemic. In this work, we aimed to predict via Deep Learning the real-time transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the province of Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy, in a grid with a small resolution (12 km × 12 km), including satellite information. METHODS: We focused on the Province of Reggio Emilia, which was severely hit by the first wave of the epidemic. The outcomes included new SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospital admissions. Pollution, meteorological and mobility data were analyzed. The spatial simulation domain included the Province of Reggio Emilia in a grid of 40 cells of (12 km)2. We implemented a ConvLSTM, which is a spatio-temporal deep learning approach, to perform a 7-day moving average to forecast the 7th day after. We used as training and validation set the new daily infections and hospital admissions from August 2020 to March 2021. Finally, we assessed the models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared with Mean Observed Value (MOV) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) on data from April to September 2021. We tested the performance of different combinations of input variables to find the best forecast model. FINDINGS: Daily new cases of infection, mobility and wind speed resulted in being strongly predictive of new COVID-19 hospital admissions (MAE = 2.72 in the Province of Reggio Emilia; MAE = 0.62 in Reggio Emilia city), whereas daily new cases, mobility, solar radiation and PM2.5 turned out to be the best predictors to forecast new infections, with appropriate time lags. INTERPRETATION: ConvLSTM achieved good performances in forecasting new SARS-CoV-2 infections and new COVID-19 hospital admissions. The spatio-temporal representation allows borrowing strength from data neighboring to forecast at the level of the square cell (12 km)2, getting accurate predictions also at the county level, which is paramount to help optimise the real-time allocation of health care resources during an epidemic emergency.

Incidence and Characteristics of Adverse Events after COVID-19 Vaccination in a Population-Based Programme.

Compliance with vaccination is linked to its safety. In Italy, a plan to identify people who could be at an increased risk of adverse events (AEs) was defined so they could be vaccinated in a protected setting. We conducted an audit to describe the process of AE risk assessment and occurrence in the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy in people who received any of the four COVID-19 vaccines currently used in Italy. Incidence of AEs was calculated by dose and type of vaccine and type of setting (standard vs. protected). After 182,056 first doses were administered, 521 (0.3%) AEs were reported. Most of the AEs were non-serious (91.4%) and non-allergic (92.7%). The percentage of AEs was similar in both settings: 0.3% in the standard setting and 0.2% in the protected setting. However, the incidence of AEs was higher among those who had an allergist visit than among those who did not (IR 666.7 vs. 124.9). All deaths (1.6/100.000) occurred in standard settings and after the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The incidence of AEs was lower after the second dose (IR 286.2 vs. 190.3), except for mRNA vaccines, for which it was higher after the second dose (IR 169.8 vs. 251.8). Although vaccination in a protected medical setting could reassure patients with a history of allergies to be vaccinated, allergy history and other anamnestic information is not useful in predicting the risk of COVID-19 vaccine-related AEs in the general population.

Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission.

Background: Starting from the final months of 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant expanded globally, swiftly replacing Delta, the variant that was dominant at the time. Many uncertainties remain about the epidemiology of Omicron; here, we aim to estimate its generation time. Methods: We used a Bayesian approach to analyze 23,122 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals clustered in 8903 households as determined from contact tracing operations in Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout January 2022. We estimated the distribution of the intrinsic generation time (the time between the infection dates of an infector and its secondary cases in a fully susceptible population), realized household generation time, realized serial interval (time between symptom onset of an infector and its secondary cases), and contribution of pre-symptomatic transmission. Findings: We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 6.84 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 5.72-8.60), and a mean realized household generation time of 3.59 days (95%CrI: 3.55-3.60). The household serial interval was 2.38 days (95%CrI 2.30-2.47) with about 51% (95%CrI 45-56%) of infections caused by symptomatic individuals being generated before symptom onset. Interpretation: These results indicate that the intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant might not have shortened as compared to previous estimates on ancestral lineages, Alpha and Delta, in the same geographic setting. Like for previous lineages, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to play a key role for Omicron transmission. Estimates in this study may be useful to design quarantine, isolation and contact tracing protocols and to support surveillance (e.g., for the accurate computation of reproduction numbers). Funding: The study was partially funded by EU grant 874850 MOOD.

Prompt Resumption of Screening Programme Reduced the Impact of COVID-19 on New Breast Cancer Diagnoses in Northern Italy

The aim of this study is to evaluate the real impact of COVID-19 during the entire 2020 period, compared with 2019. The data comes from a Cancer Registry in Northern Italy and we compared clinical and treatment characteristics of breast cancer by age, stage, treatment, and status screening. In 2020 there was no decrease in invasive tumours nor in in situ (513 vs. 493 and 76 vs. 73, respectively), while there was a significant decrease in surgery and increase in neoadjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.016). In the screening range (aged 45–74), no change in stage and grading was observed. In the four periods examined there was an increase in new diagnoses during pre-lockdown, a decrease in tumours especially at age 75+ [IRR 0.45;95%CI 0.25–0.79] during lockdown, a recovery of new diagnoses in women 45+ in the low incidence period while in the last period there was a significant increase only for ages 45–74 [IRR 1.48;95% CI 1.11–1.98]. Screening activities were suspended from March to May, but over the summer and autumn the backlog was addressed. This suggests that a prompt resumption of programmed screening may have limited the impact of the pandemic on the delay of breast cancer diagnoses.

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Transfusion Medicine Unit of a Northern Italy Hospital and Cancer Centre.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The first wave of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) dramatically affected the Transfusion Medicine Unit of the Azienda Unità Sanitari Locale - Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (AUSL-IRCCS) di Reggio Emilia, which faced a total rearrangement of the procedures for donors and patients. This study aims to assess the major implications of COVID-19 on our department, focusing on the blood transfusion chain and therapies, in order to support transfusion specialists in seeking efficient ways to face similar future emergencies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study compares our Transfusion Medicine Unit data collected between February and May 2020 with the same period in 2017-2019. Data on red blood cells and platelets donations, transfusions and clinical procedures were collected as aggregates from our internal electronic database. RESULTS: During the lockdown, donor centres were re-organized to reduce the risk of contagion and avoid unnecessary blood collection. Blood donations were re-scheduled to meet the decrease in elective surgery; consequently, plateletapheresis was implemented to supply the reduction of buffycoat-derived platelets. Transfusions significantly decreased together with orthopaedic and vascular surgery, while they were only marginally diminished for both cancer and onco-haematological patients. Reduced procedures for inpatients and outpatients were matched by remote medicine, addressing the need of a constant healthcare support for patients with chronic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The described measures were adopted to avoid excessive blood collection and expiration, guarantee the safety of our ward (for both patients and staff) and supply the necessary transfusion therapies. These measures may support the development of appropriate risk management plans and safety procedures for other hospitals and transfusion services that have to face similar events.

The impact of COVID-19 on new mesothelioma diagnoses in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of the restrictions put in place to control the COVID-19 pandemic on new diagnoses of malignant mesothelioma (MM) in Italy. METHODS: Twelve of the 21 Italian malignant mesothelioma CORs (regional operating centres) participated. The study included all cases of MM with microscopic confirmation; cases without microscopic confirmation and death certificate only (DCO) were excluded. For each case, information on sex, date of birth, tumor site, morphology, and date of diagnosis was retrieved. We compared the number of incident cases in 2020 with 2019, looking at the overall picture and for four periods: pre-pandemic (January-February), first wave (March-May), low incidence (June-September), and second wave (October-December). RESULTS: A total of 604 cases were registered: 307 in 2019 and 297 in 2020. In the 2020 pre-pandemic period, the incidence was higher than in the same months in 2019 (+45%); there was no significant change during the first wave (+1%) or in the low-incidence period (-3%), while a decrease was observed during the second wave (-32%). However, the data were not homogeneous across the country: the increase in the pre-pandemic period concerned mostly the regions of northern (+61.5%) and central Italy (+43.5%); during the first wave, MM diagnoses increased in the northern (+38.5%) and central (+11.4%) regions but decreased in the southern regions (-52.9%). All these differences are compatible with random fluctuations. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic had little or no impact on new MM diagnoses, and variations were not homogeneous throughout the country.

Tocilizumab or glucocorticoids treatment for patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: An observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of tocilizumab or glucocorticoids in preventing death and intubation in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study enrolling all consecutive patients hospitalized at Reggio Emilia AUSL between February the 11th and April 14th 2020 for severe COVID-19 and treated with tocilizumab or glucocorticoids (at least 80 mg/day of methylprednisolone or equivalent for at least 3 days). The primary outcome was death within 30 days from the start of the considered therapies. The secondary outcome was a composite outcome of death and/or intubation. All patients have been followed-up until May 19th 2020, with a follow-up of at least 30 days for every patient. To reduce confounding due to potential non-comparability of the two groups, those receiving tocilizumab and those receiving glucocorticoids, a propensity score was calculated as the inverse probability weighting of receiving treatment conditional on the baseline covariates. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Therapy with tocilizumab alone was associated with a reduction of deaths (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.21-1.17) and of the composite outcome death/intubation (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.90) compared to glucocorticoids alone. Nevertheless, this result should be cautiously interpreted due to a potential prescription bias.

Risk of coronavirus disease 2019 hospitalization and mortality in rheumatic patients treated with hydroxychloroquine or other conventional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: To ascertain if the use of hydroxychloroquine(HCQ)/cloroquine(CLQ) and other conventional DMARDs (cDMARDs) and rheumatic diseases per se may be associated with COVID-19-related risk of hospitalization and mortality. METHODS: This case-control study nested within a cohort of cDMARD users was conducted in the Lombardy, Veneto, Tuscany and Lazio regions and Reggio Emilia province. Claims databases were linked to COVID-19 surveillance registries. The risk of COVID-19-related outcomes was estimated using a multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis comparing HCQ/CLQ vs MTX, vs other cDMARDs and vs non-use of these drugs. The presence of rheumatic diseases vs their absence in a non-nested population was investigated. RESULTS: A total of 1275 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 were matched to 12 734 controls. Compared with recent use of MTX, no association between HCQ/CLQ monotherapy and COVID-19 hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (95% CI 0.69, 1.00)] or mortality [OR 1.19 (95% CI 0.85, 1.67)] was observed. A lower risk was found when comparing HCQ/CLQ use with the concomitant use of other cDMARDs and glucocorticoids. HCQ/CLQ was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization as compared with non-use. An increased risk for recent use of either MTX monotherapy [OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.05, 1.34)] or other cDMARDs [OR 1.21 (95% CI 1.08, 1.36)] vs non-use was found. Rheumatic diseases were not associated with COVID-19-related outcomes. CONCLUSION: HCQ/CLQ use in rheumatic patients was not associated with a protective effect against COVID-19-related outcomes. The use of other cDMARDs was associated with an increased risk when compared with non-use and, if concomitantly used with glucocorticoids, also vs HCQ/CLQ, probably due to immunosuppressive action.

Association of Influenza Vaccination and Prognosis in Patients Testing Positive to SARS-CoV-2 Swab Test: A Large-Scale Italian Multi-Database Cohort Study.

To investigate the association of the 2019-2020 influenza vaccine with prognosis of patients positive for SARS-CoV-2A, a large multi-database cohort study was conducted in four Italian regions (i.e., Lazio, Lombardy, Veneto, and Tuscany) and the Reggio Emilia province (Emilia-Romagna). More than 21 million adults were residing in the study area (42% of the population). We included 115,945 COVID-19 cases diagnosed during the first wave of the pandemic (February-May, 2020); 34.6% of these had been vaccinated against influenza. Three outcomes were considered: hospitalization, death, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission/death. The adjusted relative risk (RR) of being hospitalized in the vaccinated group when compared with the non-vaccinated group was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.86-0.88). This reduction in risk was not confirmed for death (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), or for the combined outcome of ICU admission or death. In conclusion, our study, conducted on the vast majority of the population during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy, showed a 13% statistically significant reduction in the risk of hospitalization in some geographical areas and in the younger population. No impact of seasonal influenza vaccination on COVID-19 prognosis in terms of death and death or ICU admission was estimated.

Are Individuals with Substance Use Disorders at Higher Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection? Population-Based Registry Study in Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study assesses whether individuals with substance use disorder are at greater risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than people in the general population. METHODS: A population-based study was conducted including 3,780 individuals, diagnosed with alcohol or other drug dependence and cared for by the addiction service (AS) in the province of Reggio Emilia. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and relative 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of being tested and of being SARS-CoV-2 positive in the population of interest compared with those in the general population of Reggio Emilia were calculated. RESULTS: Both individuals with alcohol and those with other drug use disorders had a lower risk of being SARS-CoV-2 positive (SIR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.32-1.30, SIR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.24-1.10, respectively), despite higher rates of being tested than the general population (SIR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.14-1.89, SIR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.20-1.86, respectively). Among HIV-negative persons, 12.5% were positive to SARS-CoV-2, while none was positive among HIV-positive persons. HCV-infected AS clients had a higher risk of both being tested for SARS-CoV-2 (SIR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.26-2.98) and of resulting positive (SIR = 1.53; 95% CI 0.50-3.58). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with alcohol and/or other drug use disorders are at higher risk of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection but at lower risk of resulting positive than the general population. Further research is warranted in order to support our findings and to address plausible factors underpinning such associations.

Cumulative COVID-19 incidence, mortality and prognosis in cancer survivors: A population-based study in Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy.

The aim of this population-based study was to evaluate the impact of being a cancer survivor (CS) on COVID-19 risk and prognosis during the first wave of the pandemic (27 February 2020 to 13 May 2020) in Reggio Emilia Province. Prevalent cancer cases diagnosed between 1996 and 2019 were linked with the provincial COVID-19 surveillance system. We compared CS' cumulative incidence of being tested, testing positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), being hospitalized and dying of COVID-19 with that of the general population; we compared COVID-19 prognosis in CS and in patients without cancer. During the study period, 15 391 people (1527 CS) underwent real-time polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 4541 (447 CS) tested positive; 541 (113 CS) died of COVID-19. CS had higher age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) of testing (1.28 [95% confidence interval, CI = 1.21-1.35]), of positive test (IRR 1.06 [95% CI = 0.96-1.18]) and of hospitalization and death (IRR 1.27 [95% CI = 1.09-1.48] and 1.39 [95%CI = 1.12-1.71], respectively). CS had worse prognosis when diagnosed with COVID-19, particularly those below age 70 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] of death 5.03; [95% CI = 2.59-9.75]), while the OR decreased after age 70. The OR of death was higher for CS with a recent diagnosis, that is, <2 years (OR = 2.92; 95% CI = 1.64-5.21), or metastases (OR = 2.09; 95% CI = 0.88-4.93). CS showed the same probability of being infected, despite a slightly higher probability of being tested than the general population. Nevertheless, CS were at higher risk of death once infected.

Acute-phase reactants during tocilizumab therapy for severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors of clinical improvement and intubation/death in tocilizumab-treated severe COVID19, focusing on IL6 and CRP longitudinal monitoring. METHODS: 173 consecutive patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia receiving tocilizumab in Reggio Emilia province Hospitals between 11 March and 3 June 2020 were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Clinical improvement was defined as status improvement on a six-category ordinal scale or discharge from the hospital, whichever came first. A composite outcome of intubation/death was also evaluated. CRP and IL-6 levels were determined before TCZ administration (T0) and after 3 (T3), and 7 (T7) days. RESULTS: At multivariate analysis T0 and T3 CRP levels were negatively associated with clinical improvement (OR 0.13, CI 0.03-0.55 and OR 0.11, CI 0.0-0.46) (p=0.006 and p=0.003) and positively associated with intubation/death (OR 17.66, CI 2.47-126.14 and OR 5.34, CI: 1.49-19.12) (p=0.01 and p=0.004). No significant associations with IL-6 values were observed. General linear model analyses for repeated measures showed significantly different trends for CRP from day 3 to day 7 between patients who improved and those who did not, and between patients who were intubated or died and those who were not (p<0.0001 for both). ROC analysis identified a baseline CRP level of 15.8 mg/dl as the best cut-off to predict intubation/death (AUC = 0.711, sensitivity = 0.67, specificity = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: CRP serial measurements in the first week of TCZ therapy are useful in identifying patients developing poor outcomes.

Efficacy of tocilizumab in patients with COVID-19 ARDS undergoing noninvasive ventilation.

BACKGROUND: The severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is extremely variable, ranging from asymptomatic patients to those who develop severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). As for now, there are still no really effective therapies for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Some evidences suggest that tocilizumab (TCZ) may avoid the progression of severe COVID-19. The aim of this retrospective case-control study was to analyze the efficacy and safety of TCZ in patients with COVID-19 ARDS undergoing noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV). METHODS: Seventy-nine consecutive patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and worsening acute respiratory failure (ARF) were admitted to the Pulmonology Unit of Azienda USL of Reggio Emilia-IRCCS. All patients were inflamed (elevated CRP and IL-6 levels) and received NIV at admission according to the presence of a pO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 200 mmHg. The possibility of being treated with TCZ depended on the drug availability. The primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality rate. A secondary composite outcome of worsening was represented by the patients who died in the pulmonology unit or were intubated. RESULTS: Out of 79 patients, 41 were treated with TCZ. Twenty-eight patients received intravenous (IV) TCZ and 13 patients received subcutaneous (SC) TCZ. In-hospital overall mortality rate was 38% (30/79 patients). The probabilities of dying and being intubated during the follow-up using Kaplan-Meier method were significantly lower in total patients treated with TCZ compared to those of patients not treated with TCZ (log-rank p value = 0.006 and 0.036, respectively). However, using Cox multivariate analyses adjusted for age and Charlson comorbidity index only the association with the reduced risk of being intubated or dying maintained the significance (HR 0.44, 95%CI 0.22-0.89, p = 0.022). Two patients treated with TCZ developed cavitating lung lesions during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that TCZ treatment may be effective in COVID-19 patients with severe respiratory impairment receiving NIV. More data on safety are required. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm these results.